The US Has Lost 36 Million Jobs Already, Goldman Thinks We'll Lose 45 Million. Basic Math Says it Will Take 2+ Decades to Recoup all Those Jobs - What Am I Doing Wrong?

jwiegley · 2020-05-17T17:46:09+00:00

I think this assumes a bit too strongly that the normal we had before is the only normal that works. If we carry on longer without a vaccine, new economic activity will begin to popup, since that's what people do. I don't know what shape that will take, but it's a big enough of an unknown that I'm not ready to predict what the next year and a half will look like.

jwiegley · 2020-05-17T17:28:23+00:00

If we recoup those at the rate of 1.35 million per year

Why do you assume that? Is this recession the same as the GFC?

jwiegley · 2020-05-17T17:05:50+00:00

There's an answer I can respect. Best of luck, truly.

jwiegley · 2020-05-17T05:25:36+00:00

Stocks trade against future earnings... a fair ways into the future. If prices aren't as depressed as you think, it's because many investors are not expecting COVID-19 to be a major economic factor by the end of next year. The real open question is how deep in the hole we can get before it takes 5-10 years to climb out (i.e., is this a return of the 1930s?). No one knows, but mainly it's the virus that's standing in the way of a rebound, which explains why virus news, rather than earnings or economic news, is moving the needle so strongly.

jwiegley · 2020-05-17T05:21:35+00:00

I've been buying recently, but still think it could go a fair bit lower if despair settles into the market. Current predictions (based on option sales) is +/- $8 by year end, which puts lower expected bound at $13. Seems about right.

jwiegley · 2020-05-17T05:19:24+00:00

You'll be spending a fair bit for the dividend-free leverage, but true, it reduces capital exposure in the case of major loss. This is how the seller is able to sell it to you.

jwiegley · 2020-05-17T05:11:41+00:00

Maybe sounds more like you want the Reddit effect here to boost your shares. Because usually when someone actually finds a sure thing, they don't spend this much time and energy trying to convince me of it.

jwiegley · 2020-05-16T23:01:06+00:00

More info: https://www.investors.com/research/boeing-stock-buy-now/

jwiegley · 2020-05-16T22:56:21+00:00

Yes, "selling to open" is also called writing.

jwiegley · 2020-05-16T22:54:53+00:00

This is definitely a workable strategy. The "downside" is that you sell ATM at 50, and then it suddenly takes off and you miss out on the growth spurt because your profit is capped at premium.

jwiegley · 2020-05-16T22:41:48+00:00

I prefer to "short" the market by going long commodities or bonds, rather than directly going negative on stocks.

jwiegley · 2020-05-16T22:02:29+00:00

Perhaps you could sell a bearish calendar spread, or a 1x2 put creadit spread where the ATM put you sell 1, and the OTM put you buy twice as many.

jwiegley · 2020-05-16T17:36:16+00:00

Look up Market Gamma for a counterpoint to this idea. Yes, institutional investors squeeze volatility out of the market, but as part of hedging their exposure to it. When market gamma flips, the opposite position is taken which actually magnifies volatility pretty significantly. If algo traders could squeeze all of it out, it would imply they had removed most of the risk from the market — but movements are not only dictated by internal actions.

jwiegley · 2020-05-16T17:31:44+00:00

I agree. If and when I want to bet on that segment, I’ll use JETS to lower bankruptcy risk.

jwiegley · 2020-05-16T04:25:31+00:00

If there's another downturn in equities, it's going to hurt all of your positions at the same time. Maybe add some shares in TLT, HYG, IVOL, or GLD so you get price action in your favor either way.

jwiegley · 2020-05-16T04:23:14+00:00

I would think that if they're a steal now, they'll still be in six months, so better to use your capital elsewhere and come back to this idea when the rebound trend starts to takes shape.

jwiegley · 2020-05-16T03:36:08+00:00

If we’re talking about online discussions, it does make it quicker for me to lookup...

jwiegley · 2020-05-16T02:35:41+00:00

Every day in my news feed somebody puts up a chart of SPY and draws in a fat arrow pointing straight down on the right-hand side. Opinions are legion, and most of them are worth very little. Buy it if you like Boeing, that's what investing is about.

jwiegley · 2020-05-16T02:33:45+00:00

The number of times I've bought a put at the "peak", only to see it turn into a bull trend lasting well beyond expiration... Good luck!

jwiegley · 2020-05-16T02:32:01+00:00

You generally see shares gap down the next morning by the amount of the dividend. But depending on the market it may not take very long to return to that price; so maybe not "buy today, sell tomorrow", but if you're willing to wait a bit, you could do it.

However, the longer you wait, the greater the risk, which is why this is not a free-lunch play.

jwiegley · 2020-05-16T02:29:51+00:00

If you use up all the capital letters, we'll have runaway capital inflation and then none of us can get heard.

jwiegley · 2020-05-16T02:29:02+00:00

I usually see them appear by lunchtime that Saturday.

jwiegley · 2020-05-16T02:26:26+00:00

High-leverage ETFs are generally designed for intra-day or perhaps intra-week trading, except when combined with longer-term strategies such as holding 1/3 3x UPRO + 2/3 TLT, or some such. I would avoid trading these until you've read more, because it's not like a stock that just "goes up" because it's sitting at new lows.

jwiegley · 2020-05-15T17:59:07+00:00

Why bother with predictions? I just place my trades in the past.

jwiegley · 2020-05-15T16:44:50+00:00

I close at 50% profit, or hold to expiration if the intent was to own rather than speculate. I aim to always have several CSPs and CCs open, though some markets are more attractive than others. The usual pattern is to sell CSPs on a macro dip (where it doesn’t seem the fault of the underlying), and sell CCs on a macro bump. For trading the drops and highs of individual equities, I use various studies and indicators in TOS to determine if the time appears advantageous.

jwiegley · 2020-05-15T05:20:09+00:00

You're proposing writing a short strangle around exactly the same time as the much-hyped -- and secret -- Battery Day announcement? It should happen May 17-23 (https://electrek.co/2020/04/30/elon-musk-tesla-battery-day-terafactory/)

jwiegley · 2020-05-15T05:15:45+00:00

Somewhere a market maker gets a free cupcake each time you hit that button.

jwiegley · 2020-05-15T05:13:58+00:00

I closed a bearish bet against the market today at substantial loss. These directional bets rarely pay out for me. I'm back to looking for the opportunities of the day, where the steady money is. The news may focus on this or that expert who "called the drop" or "called the bottom", but I'd rather sell to fear than buy on hype.

jwiegley · 2020-05-15T05:03:26+00:00

If you're ready to hit the buy button, sell an ATM put instead, unless you feel it is urgent to enter the position. ATM puts are intended to have a 50/50 chance of assignment, which I find generally works out over time (black swans excepted, of course). So why not collect premium and the chance of winning that premium outright, if you're in no hurry to actually buy? Then, when you do get put the shares, use covered calls to sell your way back out, or sell further OTM calls for a better chance of retaining the position.

I wouldn't sell premium too far out, though. Your capital will be in a sort of limbo until expiration (if you can't cash out early), and you can't (or shouldn't) sell calls against the pending assigned shares. This is why I like weeklies for this method, although some like 30-45 days.

jwiegley · 2020-05-14T05:35:36+00:00

If you call the support desk at Ameritrade, they should be happy to have someone give you a tour of the analyze tab.

jwiegley · 2020-05-14T05:34:32+00:00

It didn't sound like you wanted to sell just to book a loss in the tax year, so I'm not sure why people are warning you about a wash sale. If you buy at $30, sell at $20 and buy back at $10, you'll still be lowering your cost basis by $10, even if the new cost basis is $20 ($10+($30-$20)).

The main risk is that it doesn't keep going down; but as with any trade, if you're willing to take the risk and you're right, it can be an effective trade. I thought about selling UA on its way down when it hit $12. Had I done so, I could have repurchased at $6. But I wasn't sure enough that it would drop so far.

jwiegley · 2020-05-14T05:19:50+00:00

TastyTrade and Option Alpha have some good articles and podcasts.

jwiegley · 2020-05-14T05:17:59+00:00

I would only buy more if you would have done so anyway, no matter your existing positions. If the point of DCA is to lower your basis cost by holding less expensive shares -- to reach profitability sooner -- ask if you could put the same amount of capital in something else and make those gains sooner or more reliably....

jwiegley · 2020-05-14T04:14:17+00:00

Gamma can whip the option nicely if you get the direction right, but you're juggling swords.

jwiegley · 2020-05-13T06:03:55+00:00

You’re learning that emotion doesn’t work. Never chase your losses. You don’t suck and you shouldn’t be too discouraged since you’re so young. But invest in yourself and learn how to trade more dispassionately. Read up on strategy and how good traders work. It will come in time.

jwiegley · 2020-05-13T05:55:34+00:00

If stocks only moved in one direction or another, faster than the rate at which you can roll, then there would be no point.

jwiegley · 2020-05-13T04:55:03+00:00

If you put it into the S&P, leave it in. Don’t let your emotions cause you to sell if there is a drop.

jwiegley · 2020-05-11T04:46:28+00:00

Sorry, I don’t.

jwiegley · 2020-05-11T03:48:03+00:00

You may find this interesting: https://spotgamma.com/category/market-analysis/

jwiegley · 2020-05-11T03:43:12+00:00

I can imagine what you’re suggesting, but have never seen it anywhere in TOS yet.

jwiegley · 2020-05-11T03:42:23+00:00

ThinkOrSwim has a way of sharing trade feeds. I’ve never enabled it, though.

jwiegley · 2020-05-11T03:41:39+00:00

Every dollar you save when you’re young, can be worth a lot if you keep it invested over your working life. If I could do things over again, I’d have saved more — although not so much as to never have fun.

jwiegley · 2020-05-11T03:39:37+00:00

RDS/B and NLY are decent, though the former has already cut their dividend once, and the latter is at risk. However, I like where they seem headed longer term.

jwiegley · 2020-05-11T03:38:01+00:00

Well, aside from the extrinsic value remaining. Did you mean more than that?

jwiegley · 2020-05-10T21:41:20+00:00

I love it when an investing site uses the word "guarantee". Makes me smile. Technically it means you'd pay me if you're wrong.

jwiegley · 2020-05-10T21:40:41+00:00

Save and spend, 50/50. You don't know what's going to happen in life, but you also don't want to leave your future self wanting. Split the difference.

jwiegley · 2020-05-10T20:50:58+00:00

“All time low” means nothing for a fund that’s been going ever lower since inception. It’s not an investment, but a vehicle for short-term speculation.

jwiegley · 2020-05-10T20:48:49+00:00

Yeah, I’d agree, as a separate speculation against surprise downside it makes sense, and gives some emotional incentive for the market to go either direction, which is nice. I too like having both positive and negative delta positions in uncertain times. I just wouldn’t think of it as much of a hedge, since it won’t recover your capital in the case of another 50% correction. Maybe near half of it, if the delta on the put moves to something like 0.7.

jwiegley · 2020-05-10T20:43:43+00:00

Also keep in mind that every other country is doing the same, so it’s not one county undergoing hyper-inflation, like Iran is right now. Your buying power world-wide hasn't been affected much yet.

jwiegley · 2020-05-10T20:39:03+00:00

The difference in delta will mean you’re not getting much protection with that put. Say you buy 100 shares for $100 with a put at a strike of $60 (i.e., collared shares). There would have to be a huge price drop and a massive spike in volatility for that put to recoup your losses on the shares. At expiration, you’ll not have any protection at all for the first $40 of loss.

jwiegley · 2020-05-10T19:35:12+00:00

Are you buying enough of these OTM puts to balance your delta?

jwiegley · 2020-05-10T18:40:10+00:00

I and a friend have been buying in. Not a large position, but when a solid investment company experienced $50bln in unrealized losses, it’s poised to recover book value fairly steadily as things turn around.

jwiegley · 2020-05-10T06:47:05+00:00

I wouldn't recommend starting with day trading. Emotions run higher and it's hard to take stock of your successes and failures when they occur so often that they all blend together. When I first started day-trading I tended to buy and sell a LOT, but in the end, didn't make very much. Later on, actually reducing frequency increased my gains, since I was taking better account of what was happening around the trades, and so learned more from them.

jwiegley · 2020-05-10T06:43:44+00:00

Relevant info: https://www.dividend.com/dividend-education/everything-investors-need-to-know-about-ex-dividend-dates/

jwiegley · 2020-05-10T05:47:32+00:00

There are weather futures. The underlying there is just the prediction itself, nothing else.

jwiegley · 2020-05-10T05:42:43+00:00

You close a short option by buying it back. If you do it immediately, you're likely to lose a little bit, in fact, due to the spread.

jwiegley · 2020-05-10T01:00:13+00:00

If you didn’t already have a loan, would you take one out to have more money to invest today?

jwiegley · 2020-05-09T19:07:09+00:00

Don’t think of it like a normal equity that generally goes up over time. This fund does the opposite.

jwiegley · 2020-05-09T06:49:37+00:00

Good info!

jwiegley · 2020-05-09T06:45:06+00:00

It must be my mind.

And what, pray tell, is mind?

jwiegley · 2020-05-09T06:25:49+00:00

Isn't this just what GHC.Generics is for?

jwiegley · 2020-05-09T06:24:50+00:00

Gold price, GLD is probably easiest and most liquid. Gold itself, PHYS can be redeemed for its equivalent in metal. Note that GLD is taxed at collectible gains rate, while PHYS, oddly enough, is not.

jwiegley · 2020-05-09T05:44:51+00:00

At some point it's likely they will uncut those dividends; and the time to invest is when others don't want to, not later when everyone is piling back in.

jwiegley · 2020-05-08T23:44:48+00:00

A better question is: Why do you believe what you do? Why do you hold it (mentally accepted or not) so strongly that your emotions are engaged?

jwiegley · 2020-05-08T05:28:03+00:00

I bet r/nihilism doesn't argue about meditation.

jwiegley · 2020-05-08T05:27:02+00:00

I would have expected it to default at 4% below as well, which is why I wanted to confirm by looking at the order. If it still doesn't make sense, call the broker help desk and they can walk you through what happened.

jwiegley · 2020-05-08T05:19:24+00:00

Start by not believing your own stories about the world.

jwiegley · 2020-05-08T05:16:42+00:00

What you think you believe isn't yet what you actually believe. Many people like the idea of being the calm philosopher, but it's better to get rid of the costume. Your traffic ticket has given you a chance to meet yourself.

jwiegley · 2020-05-08T04:43:09+00:00

One of my favorite news items: https://www.forbes.com/sites/frederickallen/2013/01/15/cat-beats-professionals-at-stock-picking/

jwiegley · 2020-05-08T04:40:39+00:00

What about them impresses you?

jwiegley · 2020-05-08T04:39:05+00:00

TD mentions that the two can sometimes be a bit different: https://tickertape.tdameritrade.com/trading/option-probability-delta-14981

jwiegley · 2020-05-08T04:36:05+00:00

Did you set your stop loss at +4% bid? If so, it would see that the current price is below your loss target and immediately submit a market order. Can you show us your actual order?

jwiegley · 2020-05-08T04:17:45+00:00

In the same boat with you.

jwiegley · 2020-05-08T04:15:26+00:00

I've enjoyed Option Alpha.

jwiegley · 2020-05-08T04:14:23+00:00

You can put in a limit sell order between bid and ask, perhaps a bit further toward ask to start, and if it doesn't sell within a time frame that you like, drop the asking price a bit.

jwiegley · 2020-05-07T19:09:38+00:00

I just became so familiar with it when I was younger, that it feels “right” when I’m at the terminal. No real reason! :)

jwiegley · 2020-05-07T16:21:35+00:00

I meant the opposite: sell nearer ATM puts, and further OTM calls. Shifting some risk of assignment to the put side.

jwiegley · 2020-05-07T05:53:50+00:00

No, you're right. One thing you can do is sell higher delta puts than the calls you sell, but that's still just a trade-off. No free lunch, as you say.

jwiegley · 2020-05-07T05:20:16+00:00

Even if you invest 100% into SPY today, you'll likely still do better than most retail investors trying to beat the market. It's about time in the market, etc.

jwiegley · 2020-05-07T05:16:06+00:00

I use vim at the terminal, and Emacs as my regular editor. No need to choose! :)

jwiegley · 2020-05-06T19:44:05+00:00

They do more than make airplanes. They're the second largest defense contractor in the US.

jwiegley · 2020-05-06T18:31:15+00:00

If the stock keeps going up, your call will get deeper ITM and it will have less and less intrinsic value, meaning when you roll there's not much premium involved.

Imagine a worst case scenario: Your call strike is $10 and the stock is currently $100. Your delta is probably going to be 0.99. So to buy that call back you'll pay ~$90, but the $11 call for the next week is going to be pretty close to ~$89, since it's delta may be 0.98. You end up outright paying for the $1 raise in strike. Meanwhile, the stock could keep going up faster than $1/week, meaning you'll never catch up and the situation just keeps getting worse.

TL;DR: It's not a linear problem, but a curve that steepens against you as the stock moves the wrong way.

jwiegley · 2020-05-05T05:56:27+00:00

I sometimes wait days for a fill. Depends on your objectives. Get in quick, or choose the premium you’re willing to accept for a given strike?

jwiegley · 2020-05-05T05:54:24+00:00

Sounds like you’re just legging into the spread over a really long period....

jwiegley · 2020-05-05T05:26:03+00:00

It sounds like you don't really want a compiler, but a source translator? With a usual compiler you wouldn't much care what the generated C actually looked like, just how well it performed.

If so, I'm not sure CCCs are going to be the best scheme for producing elegant translations, since by the very nature of the beast you lose any structure that doesn't matter (well, except to the aesthetics of a human author). Part of the origin of category theory was to study "what survives mapping between categories"; which is usually the irreducible essence, not the finery surrounding it.

jwiegley · 2020-05-05T05:13:55+00:00

I sell ITM puts if I really want to buy and I'm taking a strong bullish stance. Not too far ITM, so that there's still intrinsic value, but deep enough that you earn more premium if the stock moves in the direction you're expecting. If it doesn't, you buy the stock at a smaller discount than selling an ATM put, but more flexibility. As with anything in options, it's about trade-offs. The nice thing is that you can fine-tune the position to express your expectations in so many ways.

jwiegley · 2020-05-05T05:07:50+00:00

Being long and short the same equity is the same as not having it at all, and that's what your broker will do when you attempt to short 100 shares and you also own that many.

jwiegley · 2020-05-05T05:03:55+00:00

If CCC is your ir, why are product types a problem? You just curry the representation.

jwiegley · 2020-05-05T05:02:41+00:00

Depends on what you want to invest in, but I'd start by searching around for books on fundamentals analysis in your area of interest.

jwiegley · 2020-05-05T00:31:43+00:00

You picked the best eight weeks to be selling premium that I've ever seen. My returns during those eight weeks are multiples above what I was making before.

jwiegley · 2020-05-05T00:29:50+00:00

AAPL, GLD, DIS.

jwiegley · 2020-05-05T00:23:49+00:00

But pay it to whom? Any debt that is denominated in dollars, we can print more dollars until the debt is just gone. I think the balance sheet management being done right now is mostly for the public’s benefit, so that we don’t collectively realize this is just play money from the government’s point of view.

jwiegley · 2020-05-05T00:18:06+00:00

Studies I’ve read that use 1/3 UPRO and 2/3 cash (to avoid being wiped out during draw-down) can pretty safely match SPY while keeping capital free for emergencies. But if you stay in full UPRO over decades, I don’t think you retain enough equity after a crash to recover, despite the 3x. For reference: https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/30945655-dane-van-domelen/3772386-buy-and-hold-s-and-p-500-bull-3x-etfs-e-g-upro-high-risk-massive-returns

jwiegley · 2020-05-05T00:11:00+00:00

An Algebraic effect can be seen as an evaluation of some syntactic construct represented as f a into its corresponding meaning in the host language, of type a.

If you need to extend this interpretation with further effects, you can use f (m a) -> m a if you show that f distributes over m.

jwiegley · 2020-05-04T20:27:05+00:00

Very likely, I just find mc so nimble. Very few keystrokes, and no changes (even if transient) to window layout.

jwiegley · 2020-05-04T20:26:17+00:00

The degree of risk vs. intrinsic value doesn't have anything to do with how the transaction is settled, though.

jwiegley · 2020-05-04T14:10:48+00:00

The hard part of trading is generally about the trader, not the equity. And it’s not just about growth, but finding the 10% opportunity over the 1%.

jwiegley · 2020-05-04T14:07:41+00:00

Note that a loan from your bank is also a cash settled transaction. You loan to get credit (with the bank getting your debt), and you later settle in cash to resolve the debt. The bank makes sure this is as little of a bet as possible.

jwiegley · 2020-05-04T06:32:57+00:00

Something is cash settled if, at the close of the transaction, one party pays cash to the other, rather than goods, services or future benefits.

jwiegley · 2020-05-03T17:17:24+00:00

We are not market predictors. This forum is for understanding options as a vehicle to -- for one thing -- insulate ourselves from market predictions.

jwiegley · 2020-05-03T17:13:55+00:00

I actually read fairly little. It's mostly a skimming of headlines from reddit and Google News, and then diving deeper on anything that really catches my eye. Last week is was the term "gamma scalping", which led me to read 6 articles and order a book on Kindle Unlimited. I read until enthusiasm fades, and then move on to the next thing. Over times, these sorts of things start to connect, which enriches what I had learned previously.

jwiegley · 2020-05-03T17:12:02+00:00

It's really any time I need to edit multiple similar places, or even just multiple lines. Instead of using rectangle editing these days, I just use mc because it gives me more flexibility.

Example: I insert debugging printfs (poor man's tracing) by inserting print "1.." many times through a function. Then highlight the region print "1.., select all in the buffer, M-b, M-d and then C-1 C-m n to renumber them all. I should automate that, given how many times I do it...

jwiegley · 2020-05-03T00:21:41+00:00

There's been one thing that actually helps me when I'm "stuck" in a position: I stop trading it. That is, if a short put goes against me and I enter an equity position at a loss, I'll leave that position alone for a long time, maybe sell some calls against it, but otherwise wait for perhaps months for it to come back.

To an expert trader, this is probably a terrible idea, because I've frozen up capital that could be making more money than what I'll make when that stock finally turns around.

HOWEVER, I have no guarantee that doing "more trading" would translate into bigger gains. It could also generate deeper losses. So from a psychological point of view, by taking that money off the table for a while, it forces me to cool down and be a bit more cautious with the free capital that I have left.

Sometimes waiting is a good strategy, if more activity would create bigger losses; but I agree that sometimes it's also a terrible one, if there are other, better opportunities available. For me, I use it as a mechanism to force risk aversion on myself when my DD hasn't been panning out.

jwiegley · 2020-05-02T23:49:57+00:00

I hear you suggesting a holistic view of one's portfolio. I.e., seeing it as one large position with many pieces; all that matters is that the value of the whole increases.

jwiegley · 2020-05-02T17:08:43+00:00

multiple-cursors may now be my most-used minor mode. I find myself using multiple cursors to edit text hundreds of time a day.

jwiegley · 2020-05-02T17:06:16+00:00

Just remember that after 1929, it took 3 years for the deep lull in the market to rebound (after the bear rally). Beware the "no-brainer".

jwiegley · 2020-05-02T17:05:00+00:00

You'll need to buy or sell options in the same underlying to do that. See https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/47795634-marketchameleon-com/4933709-options-q-how-i-hedge-against-option-volatility-risk

jwiegley · 2020-05-02T05:27:55+00:00

There would be a change at each deviation of IV, with Vomma giving you the rate of that change, and Ultima the rate of change of Vomma. But rather than calculate the new delta yourself, you could use a platform like ThinkOrSwim (or I imagine other tools will do this) to adjust IV in the risk analysis tab down by 30% and then it will calculate the new delta for you based on the chosen model.

jwiegley · 2020-05-02T04:32:24+00:00

Better to put in a limit to sell the contract at a dollar amount, rather than trigger on the underlying. IV and the passage of time could change things significantly.

jwiegley · 2020-05-01T15:17:47+00:00

How did you get 40k from a 30-wide put spread? How many did you sell/buy?

jwiegley · 2020-05-01T15:16:25+00:00

I held VXX shares over a weekend once, Nov of 2019 right before they dropped sharply. I exited at a fairly large loss, since I would have had to hold until mid-March to get back to break even, but had no idea that a black swan was coming.

Now I play the opposite: short-term wheeling SVXY, where my risk is that the ETF experiences VIX spikes large enough to collapse the fund. Otherwise, it benefits from the contango, although it rebounds from volatility spikes rather slowly.

jwiegley · 2020-05-01T15:02:17+00:00

I would not hold VXX over long periods. It’s called a ”destroyer of wealth” for a good reason; meaning you can’t just hold on to it and expect it to go up again in the future. Check its 5 year graph.

jwiegley · 2020-05-01T06:17:14+00:00

I recommend these articles:

jwiegley · 2020-05-01T06:14:47+00:00

I agree.

jwiegley · 2020-05-01T06:11:43+00:00

That's an awfully narrow window to get the direction right. Theta is going to eat your lunch (bid at close was $0.15, and theta was -0.15), so you'd need a move in first couple of days, a sharp move in the days after that, or a plummet by the end of the week.

jwiegley · 2020-05-01T06:04:11+00:00

I'm not sure exactly what you mean by "buy back the premium", but basically: The moment you sell the option, you receive premium deposited into your account. Later, you can choose to buy back the contract to close, in which case you're paying premium to another party -- likely using some of the money you gained from selling the option in the first place.

jwiegley · 2020-05-01T04:09:23+00:00

Two other things to think about: if you blow through one side, rolling the winning side only gives you as much as the premium sold there to absorb the shock. But the increase in loss can accelerate much faster, if the underlying moves by, say, 20-30%.

Second, IV crush isn’t a guaranteed shock absorber. Earnings season takes place while other things are also happening in the world, and those events can sometimes effect volatility more than the earnings event.

In effect, you’re selling insurance to two people, and betting that the event will never be so bad as to exceed the premium on both.

jwiegley · 2020-05-01T03:51:18+00:00

Post again in a few months. I’d be happy to read your track record.

jwiegley · 2020-05-01T03:47:33+00:00

You’d need to be 6/6 on winning months, not trades, for me to buy this.

Short strangles carry enormous risk, and 6/6 just means you haven’t rolled the dice enough yet. 1 sigma in either direction means you should expect to lose on 32% of your trades.

jwiegley · 2020-05-01T03:35:46+00:00

Pick a few companies that you know, like, and understand. Study them. Watch their market patterns. Then think about likely entry and exit points.

I have a watchlist of about 40 tickers. This is all that I trade from, changing it rarely. After a while they begin to feel a bit like old friends. The numbers get a certain “feel” to them.

jwiegley · 2020-05-01T02:24:47+00:00

I closed after giving it five minutes to see if it might turn my way. It didn’t, so I left.

jwiegley · 2020-04-30T23:59:42+00:00

Yeah, not too terribly far, though. I was just happy it was still positive at close.

jwiegley · 2020-04-30T22:55:10+00:00

Ah, right, I forgot about that detail. The offsetting $5 is just the profit. So the code I gave you is not correct for what you want to track.

jwiegley · 2020-04-30T21:55:44+00:00

Happened yesterday. Called the direction on SBUX wrong, but the put was still green due to IV drop.

jwiegley · 2020-04-30T21:53:46+00:00

You want this:

2020/04/29 Bought 100 T-Shirts
    Assets:Inventory:T-Shirts    100 "T-Shirt" @ $5.00
    Assets:Checking

2020/04/30 Sold T-Shirt
    Assets:Checking                           $5.00
    Assets:Inventory:T-Shirts    -1 "T-Shirt" {$5.00} @ $10.00
    (Members:Member 1)            1 "T-Shirt" {$5.00}

I think virtual accounts is the way to track individual member sales, and maybe also fees but it depends on your use case.

jwiegley · 2020-04-30T21:46:24+00:00

I bought a call on Amazon once. Rode it out. My recommendation: don't.

jwiegley · 2020-04-30T03:45:07+00:00

Going flat is liquidating. Closing the position ASAP.

jwiegley · 2020-04-30T03:44:36+00:00

Hmm.. not sure why my suggestion is downvoted; people don’t seem to offer much constructive criticism in this channel...

Whatever you decide to do, the next time try to work that plan out before entering the position. Judgment is always compromised once we’re on the hook.

jwiegley · 2020-04-30T03:41:36+00:00

My favorite quote in this regard:

O My servants! Sorrow not if, in these days and on this earthly plane, things contrary to your wishes have been ordained and manifested by God, for days of blissful joy, of heavenly delight, are assuredly in store for you. Worlds, holy and spiritually glorious, will be unveiled to your eyes. You are destined by Him, in this world and hereafter, to partake of their benefits, to share in their joys, and to obtain a portion of their sustaining grace. To each and every one of them you will, no doubt, attain.

Also consider that anger of this sort often arises from expectations: things we expected of life, and of God, such that not being given them causes us anger and frustration — especially when those who complain and take their lives for granted are seemingly given everything. It pays to dig deeper into the root of such feelings, instead of stopping at the level of blame. If God is truly all loving, there is more to this story.

jwiegley · 2020-04-30T02:26:03+00:00

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pinrisk.asp

Effectively, getting assigned after market when you can’t exercise or sell, putting you at risk of a price shift within that window.

jwiegley · 2020-04-30T02:24:30+00:00

You can roll forward and up, if you think it will drop again. Or you can buy back and sell a put, if you don’t mind the risk of increasing your equity. That way you get to keep profit on the shares today, by transferring that loss into the short put. I’ve done this three times in the past week, when my outlook switched from bearish to bullish on a covered call.

jwiegley · 2020-04-30T02:13:06+00:00

That’s definitely the safer route, and could protect you from some pin risk. Let your broker know that if assigned, you want them to exercise the long to cover.

jwiegley · 2020-04-30T02:11:46+00:00

I would suggest going flat the day of expiration, assumed you aren’t assigned first. If that happens, and you can’t afford to buy the shares at market price, your broker would likely exercise the long call and you’d be out the strike width. If you don’t even have that much capital, I’m surprised you haven’t already received a phone call and a warning of liquidation.

jwiegley · 2020-04-30T01:29:24+00:00

A naked call on TSLA? Absolutely do not ride it, just look how much short sellers have lost on that ticker in the last year. Buy a call to cap losses or get out!

jwiegley · 2020-04-29T22:58:43+00:00

The former was exercised within a week of WORK's all-time low, so if they didn't want the shares anymore that one makes sense. They could have cashed out the contract to conserve premium, but then they'd be stuck with depressed shares. The latter was most likely a liquidation.

jwiegley · 2020-04-29T22:53:35+00:00

Buying a call below would just stop you from further loss, but you'll have to pay the premium in addition to what you'd lose by just closing now. Another way to do it is to buy enough shares to get delta neutral, if you think it might drop enough to gain back by selling. This doesn't get rid of the loss, though, it just stops the bleeding. And it requires fairly active management, and capital for the shares.

Aside from this, I'd recommend closing, or buying a higher strike call to define the loss. But be ready to take that loss in full.

EDIT: Also check out this related comment: https://old.reddit.com/r/thetagang/comments/gaizjx/please_help_me_figure_out_what_to_do_with_this/fp00ucx/

jwiegley · 2020-04-29T22:42:07+00:00

14 months in one case (WORK), 4 months in another (BA).

jwiegley · 2020-04-29T05:17:49+00:00

Buy shares of SPY. Look at the account again in 2030.

jwiegley · 2020-04-29T05:10:50+00:00

TGT has been pretty wheelable.

jwiegley · 2020-04-29T05:09:52+00:00

I stopped reading halfway in, because all I want now is a giant ticker on my wall.

jwiegley · 2020-04-29T04:43:14+00:00

If you analyze the debit spread in ThinkOrSwim, for example, in the Price Slices it will show you the greeks for the whole debit spread, and how they change at +10% and -10% (by default).

jwiegley · 2020-04-29T04:37:45+00:00

This. There seems to be a strong tendency here to wait until a trend is long established and then start piling in. No wonder so many end up buying at the top or shorting at the bottom.

jwiegley · 2020-04-28T21:40:52+00:00

That's something you'll have to ask your rep about, I bet it varies based on assets and regularity.

jwiegley · 2020-04-28T18:45:46+00:00

Options are a vehicle for trading risk. If there were guarantees, there'd be no need or use for options.Their value would be zero.

jwiegley · 2020-04-28T18:15:01+00:00

They are usually looking for: experience, knowledge, assets. If you think that any of these merits you being Tier 3, call them on the phone, especially talk to your local account rep. Mine was fantastic at helping me argue for lower commission rates based on trading activity.

jwiegley · 2020-04-28T16:40:52+00:00

Well, I guess I have my own version in my mind, that might be called "musical chairs" by others. :)

jwiegley · 2020-04-28T05:17:14+00:00

We've never printed money at the scale we're printing it now, but we're also looking at huge employment numbers that could translate into fewer buyers, fewer people willing to spend savings, causing prices to drop to attract demand. There are many articles out there on current risks, for example https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/here-comes-the-great-deflation-threat/2020/04/05/27ca18ce-75fc-11ea-87da-77a8136c1a6d_story.html

jwiegley · 2020-04-28T05:02:03+00:00

OptionsAlpha and Tasty Trade both have great free learning materials. I don't necessarily recommend subscribing to a trading service, but those and a few books should serve you well to start out.

jwiegley · 2020-04-28T04:50:03+00:00

If you don't have the funds to purchase the shares on assignment, your broker (but really you should ask them this question) ought to liquidate your covering put for you.

With TD, for example, you'd need option level 3 -- and thus, a margin account -- to trade such credit spreads.

This should also indicate that if you're asking a question like this here, don't start with credit spreads. Building intuition for how IV and time affect your position is a bit harder when you're both long and short. Best to start with straight plays: cash-secured puts or long calls, to get a feel for how they behave in various scenarios. When the mechanics of credit spreads start to make complete sense, that's the time to start trading them.

jwiegley · 2020-04-28T04:37:01+00:00

A few for these times: TWO, NLY, GLD, TK, UGA, SVXY. I see summer to 2021 potential in each of these, but it will be a rocky road getting there. I can't time when the real pops will happen -- several have already happened in most of these -- so I prefer taking more risk on the put side. I'd rather be left with equity and ride the jump, than dump the position at the worst time.

jwiegley · 2020-04-28T04:14:28+00:00

Treat the wheel like a game of hot potato. Make sure whenever the music stops, you're happy to be in that seat for a while.

I'm less optimistic about BA over the next two years, given how long it may be for things to return to normal. DIS I like more. Here are the places where the music can stop:

You're holding shares, maybe with a deeply negative cost basis, but you've got time.
You earned credit from the put.
You've sold shares, maybe giving up a large surprise upside.
You earned credit from the call.

With DIS shares, I'm ready to hold 5-10 years easy. I also have BA shares, but am less hopeful for a quick return to positive.

jwiegley · 2020-04-28T04:09:24+00:00

I would never leave myself with a naked call like that. The main reason to buy a spread rather than a call outright is to limit your risk. Don't let greed maneuver you into an unlimited risk scenario.

What you can do is roll the lower call up. Sell and repurchase a higher call. Then, if you're assigned on the short or things go crazy, you've still got your fallback.

jwiegley · 2020-04-28T04:04:09+00:00

This is called "legging in": https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/legging-in.asp

jwiegley · 2020-04-28T04:02:21+00:00

In '08 we didn't have the same Fed we do now. Be sure you've also considered the odds of deflation in the near to mid-term, which could be positive for TLT. The following is from 2010, when rates were also being kept at zero by the Fed:

From https://etfdailynews.com/news/6-ways-to-protect-your-assets-from-impending-deflation-including-etfs-dgz-xlu-vpu-vclt-tlt-d-pg-mo:

Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (NYSE:TLT): Just like long bonds suffer when inflation kicks in due to a decrease in buying power, by locking in a current rate now with a future deflationary environment brewing, long bonds with yield are where you’ll want to be. While say, a 3.5% yield may not seem like much when you’re used to the context of 2-3% inflation, if you’re in a -3% deflationary environment, that’s a risk-free “real” 6.5% yield per year which is unheard of. Expect long duration Treasuries to rally and see yields drop if deflation kicks in. Short term bonds don’t have as much room to run as the yields are already at historic lows and the curve has some tilt to it. As the yield curve flattens out in expectation of a deflationary environment, those longer duration yields drop, driving the bond prices higher.

jwiegley · 2020-04-28T03:54:24+00:00

When I feel everything is going against me, it probably means my emotions are getting clouded, and that I'm unconsciously becoming a bit vindictive toward the market, hoping to "win back" my losses.

At such times it's best to withdraw and take a month off. For your individual trades above, you'll have to go with your gut and your own research, but once you're out, avoid opening new positions until your head is back on straight.

The same is true on the flip side if I should start getting too cocksure or thinking I've "figured it out". What you want is a dispassionate set of strategies, balancing risk against objectives. Winning should confirm what you understand, and losses should inform future decisions. Much beyond that, and you may be in for more surprises.

jwiegley · 2020-04-28T01:32:01+00:00

I want to take a chance and see if I can YOLO wisely.

I love this quote. Ask me to read it back to you in six months.

jwiegley · 2020-04-28T01:30:03+00:00

You linked your accounts. Then you select the HSA or Regular account at the top. With that selected, trading forex should trade the related forex account.

I'll be quite surprised if they let you enable Forex for an HSA account, though.

jwiegley · 2020-04-27T22:37:04+00:00

Forex is handled separately. You’ll actually have to transfer money into the forex side of your account, and use a different page within ToS to see your P/L report.

jwiegley · 2020-04-27T20:11:30+00:00

Given this market, I would cash out at 50%, wait for the next drop, buy back in. There could be a significant drop in the next two months, although you really never know.

jwiegley · 2020-04-27T18:49:20+00:00

I had a covered call this week that I was rolling up and out, but it just became too much in the money. So I bought the call back and sold a put at the same cost. In a sense, I'm shifting the loss from the short call into the cost basis of the shares-to-be-assigned on the put. It's a transition from bearish to bullish, as now my loss is diminished by further moves upward, rather than increased. But at expiry I'd rather have more shares with a higher cost basis, than take the loss directly with the call.

Of course, it's only in my mind that these two things are connected. After buying back the call, I could have sought other ways to recover the loss.

jwiegley · 2020-04-27T04:01:49+00:00

Every time you visit a restaurant, you're entirely free to pick whatever you want from the menu.

jwiegley · 2020-04-26T22:18:26+00:00

I see, lowering the cost of a debit spread by selling a credit spread and hoping it doesn’t move too far. I’m not aware of a specific name, but since every complex strategy is just a composite of simpler ones, at least now I see what you’re doing. Thanks!

jwiegley · 2020-04-26T20:53:14+00:00

Ah, you’re right, I knew I was missing something. So you a credit and debit spread at the same time? Why? For Vega or because you expect the stock to rise into a particular range?

jwiegley · 2020-04-26T19:39:14+00:00

Sounds like a short iron condor that's just shifted:

(a) LONG - SHORT - (b) SHORT - LONG

If (b) is ATM, then it's a usual short IC, but if (a) is ATM, then it's what you described.

jwiegley · 2020-04-26T06:52:15+00:00

Let success gradually increase your risk, and loss decrease it.

jwiegley · 2020-04-26T06:49:56+00:00

Everything is a trade off, in this case time for leverage.

jwiegley · 2020-04-24T05:08:57+00:00

Extrinsic value of the option increased due to the $4 rise of ABMD, making it more expensive for you to buy back. You didn't mention how many contracts you sold, but it must have been several to reach that large a negative value on such a small move at constant IV.

jwiegley · 2020-04-24T04:24:40+00:00

It's useful to track your gains and losses.

Here's another thing you can do:

At the start of each month or year, note the total dollar value of your cash account. Consider these as "shares" with a value of $1.00 each.
Each time you book a gain or loss, multiply the number of your "shares" by their current price (starting at $1.00), add the gain or subtract the loss, and divide by the number of shares. This reprices your "shares". For example, if you had 10,000 @ $1.00 and booked a gain of $1,000, then you'd have 10,000 @ $1.10.
Each time you add or withdraw money to/from the account, divide it by the current value of your shares and add/subtract that amount to/from the shares. So if you withdrew $1,000 in the example above, you'd reduce the number of shares by 909.09 ($1,000 / $1.10).

With these records, the "dollar value" of your shares minus $1.00 will equal your ROI over the time period that you do the tracking. In the example above, 10%. Subtract from this your index of choice to determine your alpha, or how much you've out or under-performed the market.

This can be of course be automated using a spreadsheet, as long as you enter your gains and loss, and deposits and withdrawals. I've gone ahead and created such a spreadsheet for you here:

http://ftp.newartisans.com/pub/ROI.xlsx

Just one number per line into gain, loss, deposit or withdrawal, and it will keep a running tally of your ROI. You could use sub-totals to track the same numbers you mentioned above as well.

jwiegley · 2020-04-24T03:49:58+00:00

See https://etfdb.com/precious-metal-etfs/how-gold-etfs-are-taxed

Because these funds offer physical exposure, they are taxed as collectibles. This means that they will forgo the standard long-term (LT) and short-term (ST) tax rates of 15% and 35%, respectively. Instead, LT capital gains are taxed at 28%, with short term remaining at the 35% rate. That can be a nasty surprise for anyone who is unaware, as it cuts off 13% of the gains you may have thought you were entitled to.

Below is a breakdown of the gold ETFs that utilize this structure: ... GLD ....

jwiegley · 2020-04-23T05:30:50+00:00

Exactly. You bought insurance from someone willing to take on risk. Then you transferred that insurance to someone else, but never took on any risk beyond the premium.

jwiegley · 2020-04-23T05:26:04+00:00

The original seller might have the shares. Or maybe they transferred their risk by purchase of an identical contract to someone else willing to write it; and if THAT person doesn’t have the shares, they may have to pay to buy the shares at market price on the day of expiration, no matter how high. Theoretically unlimited.

Always have the shares if selling a call, or buy a higher strike call as insurance to form a spread. Selling naked calls is like shorting stock with less profit potential.

jwiegley · 2020-04-23T05:18:39+00:00

If they did, the assignment would affect the person who sold the contract to you — unless they in turn had transferred their obligation to someone else as well.

Think of a contract as between two parties. At any time either of the parties can trade places with someone else, but every moment in time there is still a contract and always two parties bound by it. The person who first creates the contract “writes” it, and it lives until either expiration, exercise, or until you become the holder of both sides.

jwiegley · 2020-04-23T05:10:55+00:00

You are safe. Once you closed the contract by selling, you are out of the loop.

jwiegley · 2020-04-23T05:10:01+00:00

The put option in this case works just like insurance. It gives you the right, at any time you are in the money, to sell exactly 100 shares. It carries the same risk as insurance: paying the premium but not using the coverage.

If at some point you stop worrying, you can sell the contract to regain some of the premium, or you can hold it to expiration. And yes, it would cost $473 to cover 100 shares, based on the pricing you gave.

jwiegley · 2020-04-23T05:01:06+00:00

Bear in mind that demand for liquidity drove gold prices down in March, and that could happen again. I agree that the Fed printing is long-term bullish for gold, but in a deleveraging there can be too many sellers.

jwiegley · 2020-04-23T03:29:49+00:00

My apologies for the tiny size, but I saw this graphic in a book once:

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcT1MJcEcb4MJkurgcMCFLf3L5asKMWE1CBlqOPgJXeRJpaCQL_F&usqp=CAU

The key takeaway being that while you can win phenomenally on a single bet if you hit the big one, the rate of return with long odds over time is significantly worse than betting lower odds.

jwiegley · 2020-04-23T03:10:04+00:00

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias

jwiegley · 2020-04-23T02:39:20+00:00

It all depends on where you think the underlying will go, with a long call. If the 88% was a surprise, maybe best to sell; if it's in line with what you expected, maybe your target hasn't been met yet. But what are your expectations from the trade, is the real question?

jwiegley · 2020-04-23T01:04:30+00:00

I close sold positions at 50%. For long positions I usually have a dollar figure in mind and sell at that, based on my reasons for entering.

What’s key, and the #1 thing I’d advise to new option traders here, is to pick these numbers in advance and stick to them!! You’ll do better in the long run keeping to a rationally chosen strategy. Let the missed opportunities come and go. The tortoise wins this race.

jwiegley · 2020-04-23T00:54:25+00:00

This is a terrible idea. Risk/reward is completely different from the put scenario.

jwiegley · 2020-04-23T00:46:46+00:00

Traders holding May contracts who didn’t want physical oil were panic selling to roll into June, as there wasn’t any buying pressure due to supply glut. Unless demand picks up this same dynamic will occur on the next roll, possibly starting a bit earlier in May and not so dramatic, as traders will be cautious of the repeat. See Matt Levine’s last two articles on the mechanics of this event.

jwiegley · 2020-04-23T00:40:45+00:00

This is me buying and then dumping CRM:

https://i.imgur.com/RvSBg73.jpg

I’m the opposite of a savant at market timing.

jwiegley · 2020-04-23T00:37:49+00:00

Do note that this market is very up and down. In your position I would sell a near ATM call and repurchase if called away (perhaps waiting a bit for a drop, or using a cash-secured put).

Today I sold $52 SHAK APR 24 calls against my shares when SHAK was trading at $50.5. It took about two hours to reach 50% profit as SHAK dropped to 49. This is how intraday volatility creates short term opportunities. The downside is that you have to manage the trade closely; I was ready to roll come tomorrow.

jwiegley · 2020-04-23T00:30:59+00:00

I’m not sure, at first they wouldn’t do it (back when fees were $1.25 per contract), but after transferring my retirement funds there and trading thousand of contracts a year, they were open to it. I still need to negotiate futures lower, but haven’t been trading those as much lately.

jwiegley · 2020-04-22T22:25:05+00:00

I'm sure there's a way to do this with Excel, but I haven't tried. I use https://www.ledger-cli.org/ to track all trades, which means I query for what you've suggested by running:

ledger reg capital --invert -l 'any(account =~ /Option/)'

It appears that 57% of my returns are from options. For 2020 it's 65%.

jwiegley · 2020-04-22T21:17:36+00:00

Just as another data point, I have $0 + $0.50 with TD, you just have to ask and explain that your volume will justify it.

jwiegley · 2020-04-22T21:16:03+00:00

After closing your call option by selling, nothing further will happen.

jwiegley · 2020-04-22T21:13:08+00:00

Your max loss is $80: (141 - 140) * 100 - $20.

jwiegley · 2020-04-22T21:12:11+00:00

I'm not sure what information you want from the P/L. You could track the other side: changes in your net liquidity. Then it doesn't really matter what the instrument is, or how you traded it, being $1k up is being $1k up. Or are you looking to determine which strategies are working best for you or something like that?

jwiegley · 2020-04-22T20:45:17+00:00

I've enjoyed ThinkOrSwim/TD.

jwiegley · 2020-04-22T20:44:15+00:00

It really depends on whether you want the shares, or to use the money elsewhere now that you've made most of the profit offered by the call.

jwiegley · 2020-04-22T17:07:57+00:00

I would expect it to underperform during stable bull markets, due to capping upside with the covered call strategy, but should do better during periods of turbulent upward trend. Also, QQQX currently has a dividend yield of 7.43% compared to QQQ 0.68%.

jwiegley · 2020-04-22T05:04:39+00:00

In all seriousness: divide your money in two. Fully invest half into QQQX. Use the other half for your put ideas. Don’t cash out QQQX until Jan 1 2022. See then which half is worth more.

jwiegley · 2020-04-22T05:00:46+00:00

Wish I could short the people here who are buying USO calls.

jwiegley · 2020-04-22T04:57:58+00:00

Read Graham’s book, the Intelligent Investor. Avoid all paywalls. Set up a $1000 “learning fund” to put your theories to the test and start learning from real mistakes. Read up on economics and the other market basics. And don’t let surprise successes fool you into thinking you’ve figured it out. A windfall that you didn’t cause is worth less than a mistake you truly fathom.

jwiegley · 2020-04-22T04:54:01+00:00

For #6 you have to be willing to take a loss sometimes. I sell calls against sunk positions, make income, and sometimes face a bull run in that stock which forces me to keep rolling up week after week. Doing that with three positions right now. When they turn back around, I close. You just have to know your risk limits and stick to your strategy as if you were born from logic.

Example: I have shares of CRWD at basis $78. Sold a call with strike $47.5 back when it was low 40s. It’s now near 70. Now begins the long game of rolling that call up until I’m ready to take the loss. Not near there yet in this market, though, when earnings next month could easily send it low again.

jwiegley · 2020-04-22T04:33:02+00:00

Reminds me of the “rare double-down alert” from Motley Fool that I’ve been seeing in my news feed every single day for the last year. So rare.

jwiegley · 2020-04-22T03:21:18+00:00

Best is for the profit to exceed the loss. But if it’s really 90%, then 10:1 can work out, but the thing is that that 90% isn’t the real number. The odds on your position will change with the hour as the underlying moves.

However, paying attention, learning, keeping emotion out of it, and tracking your wins and losses, will lead you toward what you need to keep doing or stop doing.

jwiegley · 2020-04-22T03:17:50+00:00

Yes, and it will happen, it’s just a matter of how often. Keep records so that you can tune your overall strategy, and you should be able to do OK.

jwiegley · 2020-04-22T00:39:01+00:00

Although, note that I'm not saying options aren't good for hedging. They can also be used to cancel out vega/theta/gamma effects. I'm just questioning whether your synthetic scenario is a full enough picture, based on what you want to accomplish.

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